Team Kestrel has averaged 18 story points completed per two-week sprint over its last five sprints, and this average is stable. The product backlog for the current release holds 90 story points of remaining work. Based on this velocity, roughly how many more sprints should the team forecast to finish the remaining work?
- AAbout 2 sprints, because a healthy team can usually pull extra scope forward once it settles into a rhythm.
- BAbout 3 sprints, because the team should stretch its commitment to hit the release sooner.
- CAbout 8 sprints, because forecasts should pad heavily for the risk that some stories are larger than estimated.
- DAbout 5 sprints, because 90 remaining points divided by the stable velocity of 18 points per sprint gives 5. Correct
Why A is wrong: This assumes the team will suddenly deliver far above its measured velocity, which the stable five-sprint average gives no reason to expect, so it badly under-forecasts the work.
Why B is wrong: Forecasting is based on demonstrated velocity, not on an aspiration to stretch; 90 divided by 18 is 5, so 3 sprints assumes a velocity of 30 that the team has never shown.
Why C is wrong: Story point estimates already carry relative uncertainty, and velocity smooths it across sprints, so nearly doubling the arithmetic forecast to 8 over-inflates the timeline without justification.
Why D is correct: Dividing the remaining backlog size by the team's demonstrated average velocity is the standard adaptive forecast; 90 divided by 18 equals 5 sprints.