Owen, aged 57, saw his retirement portfolio reach a peak value of 1,200,000 dollars two years ago. After a broad market fall it is now worth 980,000 dollars, and his planner's revised projection shows that his stated retirement income goal remains fully funded on reasonable assumptions. Owen refuses to discuss any change to his allocation or his savings rate until the account is back at 1,200,000 dollars, and he judges every recommendation by how quickly it would restore that figure. He follows no financial news, cites no recent market event, and makes no claim to be able to influence returns. Which bias best explains Owen's position?
- AAvailability bias, because a vivid and easily recalled event is dominating his assessment of the likelihood of a further fall and is crowding out the projection his planner has prepared for him
- BRecency bias, because he is extrapolating the returns of the past two years forward and treating that recent period as more representative of future returns than the longer record is
- CIllusion of control, because he believes that his own decisions about when to act can determine whether the portfolio recovers to its former value within the period he has in mind
- DAnchoring, because the peak value of 1,200,000 dollars has become the reference figure against which he measures every decision, though it says nothing about what his retirement goal requires Correct
Why A is wrong: Availability is a genuine competitor whenever a client resists a plan after a market fall, but it needs a memorable event doing the work, and Owen names no such event and consumes no financial news at all.
Why B is wrong: Recency would show up as a forecast built from the latest returns, which is tempting given the timing of his refusal, but Owen offers no forecast at all and is instead fixed on a single historic account value.
Why C is wrong: Illusion of control is the right label where a client thinks his own choices steer market outcomes, but Owen is refusing to act rather than claiming his actions matter, and the stem rules out any such claim.
Why D is correct: An arbitrary but salient number has become the yardstick for every later judgement, which is the defining mechanism of anchoring, and the former peak carries no information about whether the funding target is met.