Daniel, aged 58, has told his planner repeatedly that he intends to retire at sixty-two on 70,000 dollars a year. The planner's modelling, using the assumptions Daniel agreed, shows the portfolio exhausted by the time he is seventy-four, and Daniel has brought his wife to the meeting expecting confirmation that the plan works. The planner must give him the result in a form he can act on. Which approach best meets that requirement?
- ATake him through the Monte Carlo distribution, the sequence of returns assumptions and the resulting sixty-two per cent probability of success, and let the figures make the case without the planner steering him
- BTell him that markets have recovered from far worse periods and that a slightly better return would close the gap, so a single projection should not be allowed to upset a plan he has worked towards for years
- CState plainly that on the agreed assumptions the money runs out at seventy-four, then set out the levers available to him, retiring later, spending less or saving more, and ask which he wants modelled first Correct
- DSay that the projection needs further work, send a written summary once the meeting has finished and raise the shortfall at the annual review when he has had time to absorb the position
Why A is wrong: Every figure quoted is accurate and the reluctance to steer looks like respect for the client, which is why this tempts. Technical accuracy is not communication: a probability of success carries no meaning for most clients, and Daniel leaves knowing the analysis was thorough without knowing his retirement date is unaffordable.
Why B is wrong: The historical point is true and the instinct to protect a client from a distressing result is understandable, but this substitutes comfort for the finding. It leaves Daniel with the impression that nothing needs to change, which is the outcome most likely to harm him.
Why C is correct: The finding is delivered in one unambiguous sentence so it cannot be misread as a minor caveat, and pairing it immediately with named levers and a decision converts unwelcome news into a choice Daniel can make in the room.
Why D is wrong: Giving a client time to absorb difficult news is sound in itself, so the sequencing sounds considerate. Deferring costs Daniel a year of the very time that is the most valuable lever he has, and a written summary read alone removes his chance to ask the questions the news provokes.